Ian tended to track slightly faster than anticipated by the forecast models, he said. “It was a complicated mess of an upper-trough over the western Gulf of Mexico, a ridge building into the Midwest, a trough over the East Coast, as well as the strength of Ian.” “NHC forecasters have been very consistent with advertising that the uncertainty in the track forecast was larger than normal,” Klotzbach said. “If we look at the forecast track of Ian with the five-day cone, its soon-to-be landfall point was pretty much always in the forecast cone, just right on the edge,” said Phil Klotzbach, a tropical meteorologist at Colorado State University and lead author of its seasonal hurricane outlooks.
Ultimately, Ian made landfall more than 100 miles to the south, very near the first position estimate for a potential Florida landfall. Petersburg area could get its first direct hit since a 1921 hurricane. The potential track forecast ignited fears the densely populated Tampa and St. In the days leading up to landfall, the forecast shifted the center of the track as far north as Florida’s Big Bend on Sunday and also hovered over Tampa Bay on Sunday and Monday. Hurricane Ian barreled into the southwest Florida coast on Wednesday as a Category 4 monster just miles from where the National Hurricane Center initially projected it could hit. So were the weekend forecasts wrong? Here's what experts say.
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